Thursday, April 8, 2010

The JR Hildebrand Powerball Ridebuy Lottery

As I noted in my last blog, I’m mad as hell and I am not going to take it anymore. JR Hildebrand has no ride and I simply must do something. I am not poverty stricken but neither am I Richard Branson. If JR was looking for some help getting into Go-Karts I could probably help him out. IndyCar – um well I can buy him an extra ticket for the races I am going to.

SO In order to help, I need to figure out a way to raise massive amounts of capital, fast. Many legal repercussions exist for drug dealing, money laundering and roughing up little old ladies. Prospects for both My and Mrs JP’s potential porn careers ended about 40 pounds ago. I doubt that if I asked for a $5M dollar raise that I would get it. So what’s left? The Lottery…

Being a professional statistician by trade, I understand the concept of “the expected value of a random variable” and know that the lottery generally returns about 50 cents on the dollar, and hence is a sucker bet in casino terms. BUT where I currently stand at a zero probability chance of finding enough money to back JR, the lottery would give me a positive (but small) probability of actually raising the funds. SO that is the clear solution.

It is a not a solution without problems. The first has to do with the size of the jackpot. Just because there is a $5M jackpot, doesn’t mean I can get JR hooked up. You have to remember that the pot size values are distributed over a 30 year window and I would need the cash now, SO if you take the all at once cash option, you only get $2.5M. Then after Uncle Sam get’s paid you’re down to $1.4M. Enough to get JR and a buddy back into lights for another year, but not into and actual IndyCar seat.

On top of that if I were to win the lottery, in addition to my original plan to use the money to get JR into a ride, other people might have expectations on the money. MrJP seems to have the idea that we should pay down some bills, perhaps take in a bunch of broadway shows and buy a new 6 cylinder Outback. Obscure distant relatives are sure to show up and take a renewed interest in family bonding, random cub scout troops and Dale Coyne will show up with boy scout popcorn to sell, Nigerian ambassadors will ask for humanitarian aid to assist their country recover from devastating blizzards etc. And honestly I may want to spend a little money on myself, perhaps getting the better part of Jennifer Jason Leigh’s early body of work on Blue Ray disc or perhaps expanding my growing collection of rubber ducks.

So after taking all these sorts of thing into consideration, It makes no sense to play any lottery, Hoosier, Powerball or Mega Millions until the payout is over $100M. Otherwise, the winnings are enough to screw up my life without allowing me to accomplish the original goal. For $100M the take home after doing the cash option and Uncle Sam would be about $25M, Set up some annuities to guarantee income for the remainder of Mrs JP and my remaining years whacks off another $8M. College funds for nephews, nieces and other inane requests from other groveling relatives – another $5M. $2M for silly frivolity in the immediate short term and then I am down to $10M enough to get JR hooked up for the next two years. After that, he’s on his own. I gotta draw the line somewhere.

Wednesday was the first day that Powerball was over the threshold, coming in at $120M. The extra $20M is great because the additional net of $5M could be used to do something good for humanity other than sponsoring an IndyCar team. Once it gets over $200M I can entertain the Idea of actually purchasing an IndyCar team for JR to drive for.

SO on Wednesday I bought my first ever $1 lottery ticket. I did the Quick Pick. JP and JR’s numbers were as follows:
9 43 45 49 54 PB 20
The Drawing yielded the following numbers:
4 36 40 44 52 PB 33

Since we did not win, the Jackpot rolled over and there is $150M available for us to win on Saturday. Also in the mix for next week could be the Mega Millions drawing. This Friday it was a $95M jackpot, again - enough to screw up my life, so I am holding off until potentially next Tuesday when it will pass the $100M mark. Perhaps, I am being a little closed minded here, suppose Powerball was $75M and Mega Millions was $25M, if we won both, it would reach that $100M mark and we would be good to go…There has to be some logical flaw with that plan some how – I will have to think about it…

I will be sure to keep everyone posted on our progress so be sure to check back every so often to see how we are doing…

PS - See my last post for some insight on how the FIL championship is a mixed blessing as far as helping a young driver advance their career...

1 comment:

  1. I think that if you win the big mega Powerball prize, Ed Carpenter is also worth of some attention...


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