Saturday, March 31, 2012

Barber Pictures...Saturday

Long day at the track - started with thick fog and dew an ended up warm and muggy.  IndyCar got on the track for Quals and Grand Am put on their show.  I took a lot of crap that ended up in the recycle bin and I made use of my 24 stop Neutral Density filter in a locale it never struck me that it might be usefull for.  See the Pictures HERE.

Tuesday, March 27, 2012

Stochastic Ramblings About St Pete...

The first race is in the books and despite the predicted doom and gloom being nowhere to be found (exploding engines, indycar drivers fubar-ing it on carbon brakes, carbon fibre ass implants for cars littering the track, lotus delivering no engines etc) another flavor of doom and gloom has taken its place.  Rumblings of an impending doom were heard as people tweeted or trackforum-ed comments about a boring race, the kind that chases fans away.  The shit storm took off full bore when Jenna Fryer at the AP released the preliminary overnight Neilson rating of 1.1 on Monday. 

That lit up a conversation about “how is a sport expecting to grow” when it has racing that puts people to sleep, which was countered with the argument that there was plenty of good racing on the track, problem was that ABC didn’t bother to show any of it.  Which led to other silliness about road course racing being an acquired taste that requires the use of timing and scoring data streams being fed to super computers utilizing complex multivariate analytical modeling for maximum enjoyment.

I don’t want to rehash most of the argument because what it all lacks is the data to reconcile facts to wandering opinion.  Without data and facts, these arguments are sheer noise that I guess some people find enjoyable.  Some of this data exists, but since that data is purchased by networks and publishers under exclusivity arrangements with the data providers, we won’t ever be privy to it and quite often the data that is needed to reconcile the issues simply does not exist.  I do want to interject a few points to the conversation, some of these points will illustrate how data might swing the conversation and some just are my 2 cents worth of noise.

On Occasion, 1.1 = 1.3

This “illogical” statement might very well be true depending on the variance associated with the numbers being reported.  Understanding that variance is the point of statistical inference.  Rarely in life can we ever measure a number we are interested in exactly and that is particularly true when trying to measure the behaviors of large numbers of people.  It is simply too expensive and impractical to ask every single person in the country if they were watching the IndyCar race on Sunday.  So what gets done instead, Neilson essentially asks a sample of people if they were watching the race (via a monitoring box attached to their TV’s later reconciled and validated with set top box data purchased from cable and satellite providers – hence you have an overnight # and a final #). 

Sample stats are estimates of the numbers we want to know but they are never the exact number we are looking for.  Samples are accompanied by a measure of spread called a standard error that can be used to make an inference about how close the true number is to the sample estimate.  Think about the +/- range that is associated with political polling – marketing research data is similar.  If you want to reduce the error in a sample estimate you have to remove sources for bias (making the constitution of the sample to be representative of those in the universe) and increase the size of the sample you are measuring.

Where this is going…In sampling it is possible to observe two different sample statistics that are not “Statistically different” from one another.  To ramble on in doom a gloom terms about point estimates of TV ratings data that may not be statistically different from one another is something that I as a professional marketing researcher find annoying as hell.

So is a 1.1 for Neilson statistically equivalent to a 1.3?  My guess…working through sample size and tolerance equations backwards…The number is probably just shy of being statistically different. (Assuming that Neilson is using a sample of 15000 to estimate the ratings yields a point in time difference required for significance greater than the .2 that has been reported).  The learning here – never sweat a .1 drop, but don’t celebrate it either simply attribute the difference to sampling error and move on.  A shift of .3 is a noteworthy shift and of course IndyCar this past weekend is stuck in between the two.

Not all 1.1 ratings are the same…

A 1.1 rating can be garnered in different ways.  A Neilson rating is a composite rating averaged over the duration of a broadcast.  SO it is possible that the audience started off at 1.9 and then after 30 laps of follow the leader, dropped to .7 over the final two thirds of the race and you get a 1.1.  Or it could be that the 1.1 represents that a consistent number of viewers watched the broadcast all the way through the broadcast window.

As it relates to the controversy over the ABC/ESPN broadcast, knowing how the 1.1 averaged out is an important piece of data to know before assessing blame.  Neilson has that stream of data as do the league and the network.  Unlike the overall rating which is openly shared, this data is purchased from Neilson at a fairly high price and there may no reason for the purchasers to share and depending on contractual arrangements with Neilson they may not be able to share it if they wanted.  This stream of data was referenced last year by Randy Bernard in the context of the “turn the tire” halftime game show at Texas, the ratings dip during that part of the broadcast was enough to make sure the two step did not happen again this year.

If the rating started high then finished low, then it becomes clear that pre race promotion by the league and the broadcast partner were effective in attracting new viewers to the show.  The drop off thereafter then represents an unfortunate event that viewers were not amused and went elsewhere. 

Is that damning for the league or for the network? 

I would like to see the league go back through timing and scoring and account for how many on track position exchanges occurred Sunday, they did it for Brazil a couple years ago, so why not here as well.  We can then cross reference that number to the number of live passes ABC managed to get on air and how many they managed to replay.  The comparison should settle the dispute in a hurry.

My guess based on my anecdotal evidence is that ABC missed a bunch.  I know that after his last pit stop (one of the last overall) I was watching JR and seeing his position consistently improve from 13th, I thought wow he must be on a charge, other guys who pitted much earlier are saving fuel and he is running full rich on reds, I wonder how far he could go.  I told Jenny I thought a top 5 was possible.  Of course we never found out because all the sudden the crawler said he was DNF without a word from the crack broadcast team as to why.  Come to find out later, he was alongside (and about to pass) Willy P for sixth and the fuel pressure went bye bye.

What irks me, is that if I can stare at the crawler and know where the race is, why can’t ABC?  I have no idea what they have their people doing in the booth, and perhaps what I am about to suggest is already done.  BUT, someone should be watching T&S at all times,  I would even suggest programming a special data screen that delta’s the gaps from lap to lap so that it is easy to identify position battles that are closing and ones that are widening.  The assistant jr intern monitoring this can relay “Watches or Alerts” to the producer and camera men so that if one of these gaps closes to less than a third a second, people can be ready to cut to that battle on the track.  It’s about data, not spotters.

But what if the 1.1 was consistent?

That is the worst news of all for the league.  I feel like much of the work IndyCar has done during the off season has been solid, old school promotion and information sharing.  IndyCar has had consistent coverage via AP and USAT that it has not always had.  A great press announcement about Turbo happened shortly before the season started.  Lots of buzz about new cars and engines…and nothing much to show for it. 

To answer the reason why, we might have to address…

The Big Pink Elephant in the Room

Or at least the purple sparkle pony that left the room.  All through the debate no one has mentioned that which most of us don’t want to acknowledge as a possibility…Perhaps the Danica fans are no longer tuning in…and perhaps there were more of them than we might have wanted to believe existed…In theory it might be possible to find people who watched any IndyCar race last year and ask them if they watched St Pete and if not why.  If Danica rose to the top, we’d have our answer.  But unfortunately the only company to a list of such people is Neilson and access to that panel is very expensive for a scenario such as this.
In any stream of clientele, you are always gaining and you are always losing.  We may now know what the “Danica Factor” was and can move forward from a new benchmark.  Between the new cars and engines, a road course heavy schedule and the inclusion of Simon Pagenot and Rubens Barichello it seemed intuitive to me that anyone who considered themselves a road racing fan in this country now had few excuses not to watch IndyCar to see what it was all about.  But in reality ALMS and Grand AM have smaller ratings than IndyCar and despite some digging I can’t find evidence that F1 has larger TV ratings than IndyCar so there is a clear ceiling on growing IndyCar from the organic road racing fan base.

Growth then is going to be about either converting nascar types to watching or by converting racing virgins to the sport.  I have thoughts on both of these…but it’s getting late…so you are going to have to wait until the fancy strikes me and I feel inspired.  Right now I just feel tired and I have one more day before my Barber mini vaca begins…

Monday, March 19, 2012

JP’s Lame Assed 2012 Season Preview

So I am really tired of the off season.  Not so much for the lack of racing (that’s the beauty of DVR’ing The GP2 and Grand Am seasons and watching them during the winter months) but more so for the frivolous news cycles that begin their inane fudpuckles once the off season stretches past four months.  Right around four months into the off season the IndyCar twitter and blogger community initially bubbles with anticipation that leads to pointless hypothesizing which leads to paranoid ramblings of crazy people to dismay and eventually apathy.  This cycle that extends beyond a reasonable period of anticipation does nothing good for IndyCar…

In 2013 the new cars will have been paid for, so perhaps more team budget can go into variable costs like running at more events. Hopefully the season can grow by 2 – 3 dates next year, primarily focused on beginning the season earlier, perhaps the week before the superbowl.  Starting the season off at Phoenix and then a couple weeks later running a single day, made for TV, Monday night affair at Homestead (under the lights to shroud the lack of fans) another 2 weeks to either a slightly earlier St Pete or Houston race followed there after by whichever of those hadn’t occurred already.

But that’s for 2013 which has little business being in a 2012 season preview…

Stuff You Should Be Aware of for 2012…
2012 Will be the Year of Ryan Hunter Reay
After blundering through first half of the 2011 season filled with a variety of mental misques, Ryan finished the season from Iowa on as hot and reliable as nearly anyone.  He had the third highest average finish behind Dixon and Dario.  Ryan has been fast in the both the practices and ill fated runs his teams have had in the 24 hours of Daytona and the 12 Hours of Sebring.  He has been near the top of the charts at many of the preseason testing sessions and he looks comfortable being the team leader at Andretti Autosport.  This is his year to emerge from being a race winner to having the maturity of being a championship challenger.

The 2012 Rookie of the Year will Be Simon Pagenot
The ROY this year probably would only be an interesting contest if Rubens were allowed to play.  Josef Newgarden would be a strong favorite in any year that didn’t feature an ALMS Prototype champion who also happened to have already cut his teeth in Champcar and a couple IndyCar cameos last season.  But this is not that year.  The other driver eligible for the ROY is Katherine Legge.  No offense to Katherine but based on the preseason evidence, at least initially, success at Team Dragon Lotus will be measured in little things … like getting the car painted …
JR Hildebrand will be Your 2012 Indy 500 Champion…
Truth In advertising…On occasion this site masquerades as being something other than the JRH Internet fan club.  But not today.  Wrongs will be righted, Justice will prevail and JR will close the deal in 2012.  Patience, intelligence and superior hygiene will prevail as the well balanced and surprisingly quick Lotuses of Alex Tagliani and Oriol Servia have engines blow while running 1 / 2 with 50 laps remaining, JR will race by to the lead and become the new king of fuel management as the hard charging Scott Dixon runs dry on the back stretch of lap 200.  Then JR will Drink the milk, kiss babies and cure leppers.

About Rubens...
Rubens is a big boy, he’ll do well for himself and likely win a race or two…But most importantly he’ll have a blast in the series and will enjoy a season racing with friends, not back stabbing enemies.  What Emerson Fittipaldi discovered 20 years ago is still true, the IndyCar paddock, while on occasion fiercely competitive with each other, understands the meaning of Competitive Brotherhood.

Where’s JP?
Right now I have Tix in hand for Barber, Indy and Milwaukee.  Fontana is a 50/50 proposition and Mid Ohio as it does every year will depend on the Heat and Humidity Index.  I hope that the weekend at Barber will reignite my passion for this site.  This off season has nearly killed it.  I hope to continue building a portfolio of images on and particularly off the track to share with everyone via links to my Smugmug account.

Last November I created a limited edition calendar from images I had taken in 2011.  10 copies were made and distributed.  I purposely didn’t want to create something that might compete with the IndyCar charity calendar.  I received a number of comments and suggestions from either people who received the calendar or who saw the individual images as I posted them during the season encouraging me to make some of these available for people to purchase.  So if you might be interested in purchasing an 8 by 10 for an autograph session or some other purpose go HERE…find an Image you like and click the "Buy" button in the upper right above the Image.

And Here’s to a GREAT 2012 season!

My Blog List